Import cargo volume at major US retail container ports will be up 11 percent in October year-on-year and should continue to see strong growth even as seasonal levels wind down through the remainder of 2010, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Cargo is still coming through but retailers are mostly stocked up for the holiday season,” NRF vice-president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said.

“Retailers aren’t going to say the recession is behind them until their customers tell them it is, but we are hoping to see some sustainable economic growth over the next several weeks. The goal is that inventory levels will match sales as closely as possible.”

US ports handled 1.42 million TEUs in August, the latest month for which actual numbers are available. That was up three percent from July and 23 percent from August 2009. It was the ninth month in a row to show a year-over-year improvement after December 2009 broke a 28-month streak of declines.

While October has long been the busiest month of the year as retailers rush to fill shelves with merchandise for the holiday season, the peak shifted to August this year. The change came both because of a backlog in cargo from earlier in the year after ocean carriers were slow to replace vessels taken out of service during the recession, and because retailers brought merchandise into the country early to avoid the risk of delays this fall.

September was estimated at 1.37 million TEU, a 20 percent increase over last year. October is forecast at 1.32 million TEU, up 11 percent; November at 1.21 million TEU, also up 11 percent; and December at 1.12 million TEU, up three percent.

January 2011 is forecast at 1.09 million TEU, up eight percent from January 2010, and February 2011 at 992,848 TEU, down 1 percent from February 2010.

Cargonews Asia